Personal Reflections

Monday, September 25, 2017

The Greek economy revisited

It is now just over two years since the Greek political and financial crisis, I have listed some of the then posts at the end of this post.

Given the passage of time and the current economic strengthening in the Eurozone, I wondered how the Greek economy was performing now. The answer appears to be that the patient is still on a degree of life support, but its condition is improving.

The scale of the Greek economic collapse was quite dramatic. Figures from Focus Economics provide a picture of that collapse. Greek GDP declined from 191 billion Euros in 2012 to 176 Euros in 2015. Partially reflecting that decline, Government debt increased from 160% of GDP in 2012 to 180% in 2014. Retail sales dropped and dropped. The unemployment rate peaked at 26.5% in 2014.

After these dramatic changes, the economy began to stabilise. In June, the OECD reported:
After a prolonged depression, the economy stabilised in 2016 and GDP is projected to grow by 1.1% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018. The labour market is improving, supporting private consumption, and higher demand from abroad is boosting exports. Investment has started to recover from very low levels and should gather pace. The consumption tax increase in early 2017 and recent energy price increases will raise consumer price inflation, even though core inflation will remain moderate, as ample spare capacity persists. 
In 2016, the primary budget surplus was 3.8% of GDP, exceeding expectations and the 0.5% target. Further progress in combatting tax evasion, broadening the personal income tax base and controlling pension spending are key to cementing the significant fiscal achievements of recent years, while freeing up resources for much needed social assistance programmes. Public debt has stabilised but remains very high, aggravating economic vulnerabilities and calling for additional debt relief to ensure medium to long-term fiscal sustainability.
In July, Greece was able to return to the Government bond market for the first time since 2014. In August, the Greek Prime Minister presented a positive view on the economic outlook, suggesting that Greece had turned the corner. Despite these signs of improvement, there is also a stream of negative reporting in the left of centre press and especially The Guardian. As in 2015, Greece's problems rouse an intensely ideological response.  

One can argue about the nature of the response to Greece's problems, my personal view is that the official responses accentuated economic decline, but looking just at the present numbers Greece does appear to have turned something of a corner. Growth in the Eurozone economy remains the key. If the Eurozone continues to expand then so will Greece.As it does, the financial crisis will continue to ease, laying the basis for future growth.

Previous Posts

Sunday, September 24, 2017

Sunday Essay - a note on race and racism

Humans are classifying animals. We create constructs, systems of classification, that help us interpret and explain the complex world around us. This affects our interpretation of the world in profound and often unseen ways, something I have often written about.

Our views of the world are always imperfect, partial. Despite this, they are deeply held and shift only slowly. When evidence emerges that conflicts with our world views, we first try to accommodate it, ignore it or even fight against it or against those who pose an alternative interpretation. At some point,  we get what Thomas Kuhn has called a paradigm shift, the replacement of one world view by another.

In a post on 10 September, Writing preoccupations - Vikings, History awards, Native Title, Roman villas and New England architecture, I said in part:
One effect of this (the new discoveries) is that the entire conceptual structure underpinning, common ideas about race and evolution, that underpinned so much of nineteenth and twentieth century thinking has been swept aside. It survives today and remains important, but it can't survive in the longer term in the face of the growing evidence. 
Last week, the European Society for the study of Human Evolution (ESHE) held its annual conference. I followed the discussion via the twitter feed -  #ESHE2017. I lack the knowledge to properly understand the significance of all the reported discoveries, but was again reminded of the speed of change in our knowledge of the deeper human past.

I thought of doing a piece on the evolution of ideas about species and race and their implications for current thought patterns, but this required more time than I had. Instead, I thought that I would make some brief comments about the impact on my own language.

I avoid using the term race unless it is in a specific historical context because I don't think that it has much meaning otherwise. Something of the same problem comes up in the use of the term racist.

The dictionary definition of a racist is a person who shows or feels discrimination or prejudice against people of other races, or who believes that a particular race is superior to another. However, the use of the term has broadened to the point that it has often ceased to have meaning beyond an epithet attached to someone who expresses certain types of views about groups that the user disagrees with.  I do struggle a little with this one, though, because it requires a new language to describe prejudice within particular contexts.

The third example is black-white relations. I do use this term in an historical context where it has a degree of accuracy in terms of attitudes at the time. Even then, I have become more cautious.But for the life of me, I don't know what it means today.

Of course I am aware that Aboriginal people suffer from prejudice that I would call racist on my narrower definition of the term,. It is impossible not to be aware of this after working in the Aboriginal housing space.  However, I don't the term black-white is especially helpful in explaining this.Rather, I think that it is more helpful to address the root causes of the prejudice however held.  

Saturday, September 23, 2017

Saturday Morning Musings - untangling Brexit

On 30 April 2017 I briefly discussed Brexit and the EU, revisiting the question on 22 June. On 30 April, the EU had just released its negotiating guidelines, rejecting the UK desire for parallel negotiations. There was a lot of background chatter about EU problems, about the UK's internal problems.  My feeling was that the actual outcome of Brexit would fall between the worst and best case scenarios, resulting in a somewhat stronger EU, a somewhat diminished UK.

By 22 June there had been that UK election (9 June) that UK Prime Minister Theresa May almost lost. Within Europe, the anti-EU forces had weakened somewhat with the election of Emmanuel Macron as President (7 May 2017), while Angela Merkel's position in Germany was strengthening as was the EU economy. Initial Brexit negotiations had begun, with the EU sticking to its negotiating line.My feeling was that the initial negotiations suggested that in practice the UK will have little choice but to follow the EU agenda, although I although suspected that there was some scope for flexibility. My conclusion of a strengthened EU with a somewhat diminished UK remained the same.

Since 22 June, the Eurozone economy has continued to strengthen, as has Angela Merkel's position in Germany. The German elections are tomorrow. I am reluctant to make a forecast, but it does appear like business as usual in Germany. In France, President Macron has begun to implement reforms designed to strengthen the French economy.  Discussions about EU reforms continue, although no-one doubts the problems.

Now British PM May has announced the UK Government's latest stance on the Brexit negotiations. While details are still sketchy and will need to be worked out in negotiations, PM May's position seeks a two year transition period after formal Brexit, offering concessions in return. From my superficial scan, I thought that the basic structure was credible.

You simply can't untangle something as complex as Brexit without time and considerable compromises,. this is fundamental constitutional and economic change, but so far so good. In fact, a little better than I expected.

Update

The German elections appear to have returned Angela Merkel to power, although the CDU-CSU and SPD polled worse than expected, the AfD (The Alternative für Deutschland) better than expected, based upon pre-election polling. It should therefore be business as usual subject to coalition discussions, although the various parties involved will need to decide how to respond to the dissatisfaction revealed by the vote, especially in the east.  

Monday, September 18, 2017

Monday Forum - Open Thread

Today's Monday Forum provides a chance for anyone to raise whatever they like I am not even going to give hints!.


Update 1

With demolition underway in George Street, Sydney, the old side of the Peapes' building suddenly reappeared with its advertising.

Peapes was Sydney's leading men's wear store. It operated from Beneficial House from 1923 to the business's closure in 1970. Peapes was a posh store, an elegant place, in-keeping with the quality of Peapes’ goods, which were stressed to be of the highest degree.

Mum bought me my first sports coat at Peapes. I must have been in 5A, what we would now call year 9. She wanted me to get a nice Harris Tweed and was slightly surprised when I went for a slightly blue version with a degree of glitter. She was probably right you, I had no idea of fashion! Some of my older friends may actually remember the jacket, for I wore it for many years.

Back in Armidale, I wore it proudly to the local show on the Saturday. There, mixing.with the boarders, I got into a degree of trouble from a master because I wasn't in school uniform!

On Mirror Sydney, Vanessa Barry's A Peep at Peapes tells the story of the store. It's a nice piece on a very good blog.

Do you have clothing stores that you remember from your childhood?  

Update 2

kvd remembered Fletcher Jones. He pointed to this YouTube video on the firm's last days as it fought to stay alive in the face of falling tariffs and lower overseas wage rates.

kvd also found this UK blog, Ornamental Passions.Subtitled "Devoted to the unexpected details that help to make life in the city worth living", the blog looks at the statues and building decorations that are such a feature of London. It's really a very good blog. kvd asked me if there was a an Australian equivalent. I don't know of an exact one. Perhaps Helen Webberley (Art and Architecture, mainly) might know? As an aside, Helen's blog maintains its very high standard. It's a good read. .

Update 3 26 September 2017: Same Sex Marriage

I am keeping this thread open until next Monday as a way of recording updates.

I voted the same day the same sex marriage survey form arrived, primarily because I was concerned that some of the yes protagonists might put me off. In her lucid survey of the debate on Skepticslawyers, Why I am voting Yes in the SSM postal survey (but won’t be telling anyone else how to vote), Legal Eagle  called this response reactance. I am certainly prone to it. When sporting codes such as the Australian Rugby Union or firms such as Qantas come out officially in favour of a yes vote, I find myself moving into the no camp because I regard this as inappropriate behaviour for those organisations, given their roles.  .

Reporting of opinion poll results since the survey began suggest a decline in the yes vote, a rise in the no vote. I still think (and hope) that the yes vote will get up. Here Dr Kevin Bonham's Recent Polling On The Same-Sex Marriage Postal Survey provides a very useful analysis of the poll results.  

Sunday, September 17, 2017

Urban notes - House of the Year 2017, Melbourne's mansion wars, the demolition of Hensley Hall

I remain focused, indeed obsessed with architecture and the built environment. This will pass, but for the present I am enjoying the journey!

In Auchenflower Magnificent in its modesty: Auchenflower house wins House of the Year for 2017, Jenny Brown reports on the Queenslander that won the House of the Year award. I quote:
If you took closer note of the 1910 white weatherboard on an up-sloping corner, you might think that even with that obviously contemporary wedge-shaped rear extension, “it fits”. Auchenflower House hasn’t made any bid for attention in the neighbourhood of character Queenslanders. 
But that is the essential point of the project.
As decided by the jurists of the 2017 Houses Awards – one of the nation’s premiere residential awards because the host magazine talks to architects in their own dialect – what Vokes and Peters have done has created a dwelling of “deceptive simplicity”.
It was a curiously unsatisfying article because while I understood the broad point, I couldn't quite work out what had been done and why, However, I did take her point about the way in which preservation of the Brisbane built environment and the traditional Queenslander home had added to Brisbane's visual appeal and livability.

Down in Melbourne,battles have been raging over demolition of traditional mansions in Melbourne's wealthy (and leafy) inner east. This mansion at 9-11 Edward Street, Kew, was bulldozed after a failed attempt to get heritage listing.

Allison Worrall's piece in Domain provides a picture of the battles now raging. The problem is that wealthy buyers who want to live in the area in their own designed modern house are prepared to pay full market price plus demolition costs to gain access to the prestige sites. We have seen a similar pattern in Sydney.

In both cities as well as Brisbane, the search by developers for possible medium to high density sites has also been driving changes to the streetscape and the pattern of living, something I spoke of in Sydney's growth problems - light rail, Kingsford, Pagewood and Daceyville.

This is an artist's impression of The Hensley, a new development at Sydney's Potts Point. In June 2016, Domain reported that  the plan would involve retaining and updating the twin terrace facade of Hensley Hall, a former boarding house that was something of an area icon, adding an eight-storey building to house 44 apartments. A ground-floor cafe was also planned for The Hensley.

Interestingly, the developers also said that Sydney's controversial lock-out laws had encouraged change in some areas towards inner city residential.

Whatever the plans were in June 2016, the outcome has been the effective demolition of Hensley Hall apart from two facade slivers. The Daily Advertiser report on the fiasco suggests a degree of confusion and mixed signals, with the developers clearly not placing sufficient weight on their original undertaking.   .   .

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Why the Finnish approach to homelessness will struggle in Australia

Martin Place, Sydney. Closing the homelessness camp. Image Sydney Morning Herald

The visit to Australia by Professor Eoin O'Sullivan, editor of the European Journal of Homelessness, to present the keynote address at the Victorian Homelessness Conference. attracted considerable media attention (here, here are examples) because he suggested that Australia and other countries including the UK are approaching the growing homelessness problem from the wrong direction. He contrasted their experiences with that of Finland, which has largely solved the problem.

I think that he is right, although its not quite as simple as that.

In Australia, the current policy structure involves a hierarchy of emergency accommodation, transition housing and then longer term housing. This model is based on the idea that a homeless person needs a bed now, then because many have other mental and social problems that limit their ability to handle housing you put them into time limited transitional housing where they can be supported while they "learn" to manage their issues and then you exit them into longer term rental accommodation in social housing or the private rental market place.

The Finnish model involves immediate placement into long term secure housing. Once there, support can be provided as required.

The Australian model does not work. It is expensive and over-burdened by red tape and reporting requirements. To take some very simple examples, compliance with reporting requirements requires you to have sophisticated IT systems and full time staff that have the capacity to collect information and interface with Government information systems. This can chew up resources and rule out smaller providers with local focus who are increasingly dropping out of service supply because it's all just too hard. Government contracts for supply are short term, making it difficult to invest for the longer term or to ensure continuity in supply. And the homeless themselves face continuing insecurity because there is no certainty as the end of the transition period.

The Finnish model does appear to work. The number of homelessness has dropped. Expensive emergency and transitional housing has been greatly reduced, offsetting the costs of longer term housing. It is actually cheaper to place people in longer term housing.

The Finnish model cannot work in Australia, at least not to the same scale. Finland has a population of 5.5 million. Between 2008 and 2015, the Finns built 6,000 units specifically for homeless people. NSW, to take one state, has a population of 7.6 million. Its Social and Affordable Housing Fund, the main growth mechanism in social housing, will deliver 3,400 homes spread across the social housing sector. NSW is simply not building the number of homes required to deliver the Finnish model. The same is true in other states and territories.

For the immediate future, we are forced to satisfice, to decide on and pursue courses of action that will satisfy the minimum requirements necessary to achieve a particular goal, To illustrate.

The creation of the Martin Place homelessness camp created a political imperative to do something, to close it. .Most of those who wanted permanent accommodation have now been placed in social housing. But with social housing in short supply, their placement means that 100 or so social housing places have been taken in an already strained social housing system, extending waiting lists for others.

We have satisficed, dealt with the now, but haven't dealt with the longer term for either the homeless or others waiting for social housing.

Monday, September 11, 2017

Ideology of left and right - how do we break free?

I woke this morning thinking about just tired I have become with change, instability and uncertainty. I know that I should follow kvd's advice and focus on the green shoots appearing on trees, ignore the rest, but it's hard.

Over the decades I have been alive I have seen massive change. Much I agree with, some I do not. In all this, I think that the hardest thing to cope with are the constant changes made to Government policies, programs and laws that actually seem to have limited point. Now I am just tired.

I have made my position clear on the current postal vote on same-sex marriage. I support a yes vote. However, listening to the yes campaigners on some of the no arguments, I fear they miss a simple point. Many of the people on the no side are actually drawing a line in the sand against further change. They say, simply, that their beliefs and values have been progressively challenged and overturned. If we agree to this one, what comes next?

This is a perfectly rational position. The progressive have been constantly pushing the boundaries, determined to enshrine their beliefs on right and wrong in legislation and policy. I may agree with many of their points, but that doesn't make me blind to the social engineering involved, nor to the sometimes bigotry associated with the progressive position.

We live in an increasingly intolerant society. I remember the 1950s and do not wish to return there. The two greatest social changes from that period that I value are the changing role of women and attitudes towards sexuality. While there were many good things about the 1950s, young people could actually get a job, there was also a sometimes stultifying conservatism. Now, however, we seem to be in a remarkably similar position, but without the stability that marked the 1950s.

I don't quite know how to manage all this.We have the neocons arguing on ideological and theoretical grounds that Government should get out of activities. We have the progressives arguing that Government must intervene to prevent things. We have Governments swinging in the wind in response to pressures, but still focusing on the grand goals of risk minimization, efficiency and effectiveness. At a time when there is apparent agreement about the limitations of government power, there is yet constant pressure on governments to do things even where that is likely to be at best ineffective, at worst counter productive.

Blowed if I know. I think, in the end, that all we can do is to keep trying, I also think that it is especially important for those not locked into the main ideological schools to keep trying to present an alternative view.

Postscript 14 September

Fellow blogger Legal Eagle has posted a very thoughtful post on the same sex marriage issue that is worth reading - Why I am voting Yes in the SSM postal survey (but won’t be telling anyone else how to vote)

Sunday, September 10, 2017

Writing preoccupations - Vikings, History awards, Native Title, Roman villas and New England architecture

Today's Sunday snippets are a round-up of my own and other people's writing. I hope that you find something of interest.

An article in RT reports confirmation based on DNA analysis that the body found in a famous Viking burial site was female. Analysis of the skeletal remains had suggested this, but doubts were raised because of the perceived structure of Viking society. It is the first formal confirmation of the existence of a female Viking warrior. The RT article includes links to the scientific paper reporting the results. This is worth a read.

 This month's history carnival, the 168th,was hosted by Helen's ART and ARCHITECTURE mainly. Do have a look. My favourite among the posts mentioned, and I'm not alone here, is Laundry Methods During the American Revolution: The Really, Really Quick Version  

On 1 September I reported on Winners of the 2017 NSW Premier’s History Awards. The post includes the judges' comments on each award winner along with a link to the publisher. I heard an interview with Mark McKenna telling part of the story from From the Edge and I'm looking forward to reading the book. 

 My main post on the New England Australia blog during the week was The Western Bundjalung Native Title Decision

At Tabulam on 29 August 2017,around 400 people including traditional owners gathered in a crowded marquee erected on the local racecourse as a temporary courthouse to hear the consent determination delivered in the long-running Western Bundjalung Native Title case. 

After a Welcome to Country and traditional smoking ceremony, Federal Court Judge Jayne Jagot delivered her consent judgement. This granted the native title claim, legally recognising the rights and interest of the Western Bundjalung people as traditional owners of the land, including the right to camp, hunt, fish, gather resources and conduct their cultural practices on their country, as well as the right to be consulted on matters including mining applications on their land that affect the management of their land.

The post provides details and background on the decision. While it's mainly drawn from the media reports listed at the end of the post and is in that sense derivative, it took me a long time to write because I was trying to gather it all together to tell a story. I also wanted to add some links to things like the full decision.  

The photo from ABC Mid North Coast shows some of the elders at the hearing. If you look at the left hand side you can get a feel for the emotion of the day.

I was a bit nervous about this post as I am so often now on writing about Aboriginal history or issues. However, Michael Bennett,  the historian at NTSCORP Ltd who played an important role in collecting the evidence required to substantiate the case, said in a tweet: "Thanks Jim for your thorough and authoritative review". Needless to say, I was pleased. Outside his work for NTSCORP Ltd., Michael has been painstakingly putting together a history of Aboriginal trackers in NSW. You will find the results of this work at Pathfinders. The History of NSW Aboriginal Trackers.It's an interesting site and well worth a browse.    

I have another story to do on the latest Yaegl Native Title decision, the first to award title over ocean in NSW. Native title does not grant absolute rights, but it means that people can exercise traditional rights without restriction from State legislation. This has become a major problem in Southern NSW where the Yuin people have been restricted from fishing for private purposes on what was their land because of general restrictions and charges designed to protect fisheries and raise Government money. 

Meantime, the new discoveries keep rolling out. The fossil footprints of Trachilos date to c5.7 million years ago reports on one such discovery. As my regular history commenter Johnb says, it's exciting. The discoveries have turned our understanding of the deep human past and the evolutionary process itself on its head. Linear evolution has been replaced by possible multi-linear evolution from several sources. We have many more hominid species who may have or indeed did interbreed.  

One effect of this is that the entire conceptual structure underpinning, common ideas about race and evolution, that underpinned so much of nineteenth and twentieth century thinking has been swept aside. It survives today and remains important, but it can't survive in the longer term in the face of the growing evidence. 

Not all the discoveries relate to the distant past.We are finding new stuff all the time.This Guardian story,  Barn conversion leads to amazing find of palatial Roman villa, is an example. 

These discoveries don't necessarily invalidate previous historiography. Many now ignored histories that are seen as fuddy duddy, well past their use by dates, not reflective of "modern" thinking, actually contain great insights. Just because a person has worked from less evidence and from world views that many now reject does not mean that they are wrong on every point. Sometimes, having less evidence can be a real advantage. However, at the very least the new discoveries add texture and depth to familiar stories as well as writing new stories. It's an exciting time to be an historian. It's also a challenging one because so much more has to be fitted in. 

My core writing focus remains on New England Travels: journeys through space and time.  I am trying to use this as an integrating device across a range of my historical writing, ultimately leading to my full history of New England. 

I thought of titling this photo "You call that a verandah. This is a verandah!" This is the Croft, just outside Armidale. 

The linkage is that my latest historical research foray is architecture, including a new series on the New England built landscape and architecture in my Armidale Express column. These forays take time and put off actually finalising anything, but they do add to the texture and depth of the product. 

Mind you, I blame the ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) for this latest foray because of programs like Grand Designs!

In my first column in the series (Architectural keys to past), I said in introduction. "The past lies all around us in the form of the built landscape. We see it, but then we don’t because it is so familiar to us." I think that's right. No matter where you live, the built landscape is both where you live now and an historical artifact.

In the series I am going from the Aboriginal built landscape right though to the most modern.  

This is a recent construction outside Armidale from architect Luigi Rosselli. The description reads: 
This hill top house is a concrete expression of Armidale ’s unique meeting of rural life and culture, “agri-culture”, a town with a university and many other cultural institutions. 
The clients seamlessly combine their flourishing agribusiness with their white collar occupations.  Gentlemen farming.   Their modern “Homestead” is located at the peak of the property overseeing the health of the cattle in the valley below. 
The 1000 metres of altitude are felt outside with cold winter fog covering the valley, whilst inside the house is a refuge enhanced by strongly integrated passive solar design principles.   The sheds and barns are located remotely. 
Keeping nature intact, the grassy slopes of the hill continue all the way up under the concrete platform.   The slab and the corrugated steel skirt under, are a protection against grass fires and conceal large water tanks.   The concrete and the tanks provide ample thermal mass to balance the temperature extremes that high country encounters.   The Interiors are an urbane and cultured refuge to a collection of art and indigenous artefacts collected in Africa and Asia.   There is no place for whips, saddles and country style clichés.
Now I happen to be rather fond of country style cliches and older styles such as this one, Woodleigh, also just outside Armidale. But the point about architecture and the built landscape is that it constantly reinvents itself, replacing what went before.

That replacement process can go too far to the point that it destroys the past beyond repair,  That has happened in Sydney to a significant degree to that city's permanent loss. But to the historian its all evidential grist to the mill.

I have sidetracked, something that I am prone to do. However, and just to finish this post, I have had a wonderful time searching the house sale notices looking for examples to illustrate various architectural styles and to trace changing patterns over time. I wrote about this in Using Domain or realestate.com.au as historical research tools.



Saturday, September 09, 2017

NSW Council elections: the strange case of Bayside


Created in the name of efficiency and improved service delivery  by a forced NSW Government merger of the the Botany Bay and Rockdale Councils, Bayside Council lacks any community of interest.

Today were the first local government elections since the recent round of State Government enforced council mergers which, among other things, created Bayside Council. Voting is compulsory, so I toddled off to vote.

I am in Port Botany Ward.which has some 20,000 people on the roll. There are five wards in all, all roughly with the same number of voters. The forced merger of Botany Bay and Rockdale left deep resentments among Botany Bay Council residents.

The map above suggests superficial unity in that the new council is grouped around Botany Bay, hence the name. What won't be clear from the map is that Sydney Airport creates an almost total divide between the two merged areas. If you were to map communications and transport patterns within Bayside, you would find almost no interaction between the two areas. For me to get to Rockdale by  public transport takes 45 to 75 minutes depending on connections.

I don't like party politics in local government, I feel that it distorts, so as much as possible I vote for independent candidates. Of course many of these do have party affiliations, but they are generally not bound to support the party machine or promote party interests when local and party interests to conflict. As it happened, I didn't have a lot of choice. There were just seven candidates in Port Botany Ward (three to be elected) broken into three Liberals, three ALP plus one independent who actually lived in the Ward. So my first vote was clear.

Checking the other candidates, I found that the the ALP team were all locals, while the Liberals all came from the old Rockdale Council area. I was surprised at two levels. It seemed unwise, given local sensitivities. It was also hard to see how the Liberal candidates could represent constituency interests when they were so far away. Labor were having a field day at the booths on all this. Vote for us as the only local candidates, they said, ignoring the local independent.

All this made voting fairly easy. One independent and then the Labor team in reverse order.

I will watch the results with interest. There may be just enough dyed in the wool Liberal voters to get one candidate up, but it wouldn't surprise me to see three ALP or two ALP plus the independent. In the longer term, it wouldn't surprise me if Bayside unraveled into a Botany v Rockdale mess.

Postscript

While there is still some counting to go, it seems that Liberal core vote was just enough to get the first Liberal candidate elected in Port Botany Ward. At this point, the position appears to be:

  • ALP 64.4% of the votes, 2.57 quotas, 2 elected
  • Liberal 23.1% of the votes, .92 quota, one elected
  • Independent 12.5%, 0.50 quota

Friday, September 08, 2017

The same-sex marriage postal vote. The yes should win, but........

A friend gave me this gem. I really laughed.

I didn't know whether to be pleased or sad about the High Court's decision allowing the gay marriage postal vote. Pleased in that it should allow the matter to be resolved by the end of the year, sad because I thought the decision strengthened the power of the Executive in a way I did not like. However, we won't know the scope and implications of the decision until the High Court releases its reasons.

I have previously indicated my support for same-sex marriage. Subject to two important qualifications, I expect the postal vote to be carried.

The first qualification is that (and this may be very unfair) I don't really trust the discretion or judgement of some of the yes activists. The attacks on Dr Lai are a case in point. This type of behaviour risks alienating those who might otherwise vote yes.

The second qualification is, to a degree, linked to the first. Quite a few people who are on the No side will not discuss it in public or, perhaps, even admit it in polls for fear of getting their heads bitten off or suffering from a job perspective. The second is a very real fear in organisations where the official position or attitudes of senior management or fellow staff is is strongly pro yes. Just because people self-censor doesn't mean their views have changed.

We also don't know to what degree the samples normally used in the polls are representative when attitudes are very skewed. Based primarily on anecdotal evidence, I would expect higher no votes in various migrant, religious or ethnic groups.

To the degree that I do become involved in discussions with no voters, I plan to spend my time largely listening rather than arguing.

Postscript 13 September 2017

This ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation Vote Compass story provides an interesting picture of the pattern of support and opposition to same sex marriage across the country. Because of the number of respondents, it overcomes (to some degree at least) the question of sample bias that I mentioned above.

Wednesday, September 06, 2017

The Australian Government's dog days

The world seems to be in a degree of turmoil at present. Internationally, the North Korean crisis continues. I think that Kevin Rudd has provided one of the most sensible summaries of the position. He thinks that war is unlikely but now possible. He places the possibility of war now at 20-25 per cent.

The thing that worries him, as it does me, is that some-one will finally lose patience and say bugger it. Mr Rudd phrases it more politely, crises have their own logic, but the message is the same.

There is little that you or I can do or perhaps anyone else. It's an example of a wicked problem whose evolution will be discussed for years to come.

Here in Australia the same-sex marriage postal vote is before the High Court. The Government seems confident, they have to appear so, but constitutional expert George Williams takes a counter view. Intuitively I'm inclined to agree with Professor Williams, but in any event we will know soon enough. Whichever way it goes, the issue will continue to suck oxygen from debate on other issues in that there will either be campaigning for the postal vote or a renewed push for legislation back in Parliament. Meantime, Section 44 dual-citizenship uncertainties will continue until resolved by the High Court.

The nightmare scenario for the Coalition Government is one in which the High Court rejects the postal vote and also rules that citizenship by descent does make candidates ineligible  for election as a consequence of Section 44(i) in the Australian Constitution.. The ABC's Antony Green discussed some of the issues in a very helpful blog post on 25 August.

In the Senate, the main problem for the Government would be the resolution of tensions arising from the the existence of a joint ticket between the Coalition Parties in NSW, together with the presence of a merged party in Queensland. In the House of Representatives, the Government would face a by-election for Barnaby Joyce's seat of New England. My Joyce would recontest and probably win. However, this would remove the Government's one seat majority in the meantime. In this case and depending on timing, I think that the Government would prorogue Parliament until the by-election had been held, thus avoiding sittings.

Problems with the Australian energy (electricity and gas) sector covering price and supply add to the Government's woes. A few weeks back I got my latest electricity bill. This rose from $395 for the previous quarter to $600. Part of that was due to usage, the house is cold and I have been using an electric heater quite intensively, more to increases in the basic price. On top of this have been debates about the reliability of supply that began with the South Australian blackouts. Yesterday, AEMO (The Australian Energy Market Operator) provided advice to the Government.  
The NEM is not delivering enough investment in flexible dispatchable resources to maintain the
defined target level of supply reliability, as the transition from traditional generation to variable energy resources proceeds. This was vividly illustrated by the load-shedding events of February 2017 and by the Finkel Review analysis. Most stakeholders see changes to market rules as the most economically efficient way to remedy this deficiency. AEMO forecasts of NEM demand and published investment plans confirm the urgency of this task and short-term measures will be necessary until a long-term solution is agreed and becomes fully effective.
The current mess has been  a long time coming and, to a degree at least, foreseen. The problem is that there hasn't been agreement on causes or responses, with discussion caught up in ideological and environmental issues. Now that interconnected problems have become acute, all governments are scrabbling to address them

It's a case study in bad policy at all levels. The Commonwealth Government faces a particular problem in that in his opposition to a carbon tax, previous PM Abbott effectively nailed the Government to a lower electricity price flag-pole. The problem has been compounded by the absence of a coherent narrative from the Government.  

In all, a mess.

Monday, September 04, 2017

A problem with coins - and bring back the $2 note

Here in Australia, a Melbourne pensioner went into Coles store with her daughter. The pair selected groceries and took them to the checkout. The total came to $130.

The pensioner then provided $100 in notes and $30 in Australian gold coins. The check-out operator said that she would accept the coins this time., but next time she can only accept $20 in gold coins.

Both pensioner and daughter were upset. The pensioner does understand EFTPOS, nor does she has an EFTPOS card, so she always pays cash.

So why was the store refusing to accept coins? They were legal tender.

The answer seems to lie in the Currency Act of 1965. While coins are legal tender, there are limits and you can’t pay more than “10 times the face value” of the coin.

I haven't checked the Act, but assuming this is correct the position would appear to be that the maximum you can pay in coins is:
  • 50 cents with 5 cents
  • $1 with ten cents
  • $5 with 50 cents
  • $10 with $1 coins
  • $20 with $2 coins. 
We all accumulate coins, more so since the Government did away with the $1 and $2 notes. They weigh in our wallets or accumulate in coin jars.Once the $2 note was abolished, we added the two dollar coins to our jars.

I don't know about you, but when I'm broke I raid the coin jar, apparently breaching the rules by offering more than the stated limits for each group of coins. This may sometimes annoy the shop person (you try counting 5 cent coins). but nobody has ever said to me that they could not accept the coins for legal reasons.

The problem that now arises is most acute with the one and two dollar coins, for these coins (and especially the $2 coin) still have real value. I really miss the $2 dollar note.It was just so practical in the minutiae of domestic life, especially for those on low incomes. who actually do watch their single dollars.