I have been slowly working my way through the Ernst and Young cost-benefit analysis of the proposed move of the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority (APVMA) to Armidale (photo). I am trying to be objective, but it's hard.
As a piece of work, it sets out its approaches and assumptions clearly enough to be understood. That's good. However, it is also a clear case of the limitations of cost benefit analysis or, perhaps more correctly, the way the frame used determines the result. Its actually quite important as a case study in the misuse of comparative and input-output models. Among other things, the methodology is such that the move of an agency from a bigger to smaller centre is likely always to show negative results because of the structure of the model applied. Another problem is the reliance on generalised statistics based on the past.
I will comment further when I have completed my analysis. meantime, 2t might like to read the report and respond!.
Australian Attorney-General George Brandis finds himself in further trouble over the dispute with former Solicitor-General Justin Gleeson. I wrote about this first here and then here.You will find Senator Brandis's statement on the matter here.
This dispute must seem awfully obscure to people outside Australia and many within. The twitter streams and instant politician responses have very little to do with the issues but are simple repetition of opinions and other opinions that might appear supportive. The constitutional issues are quite important, but get lost in the immediate discussion.
has named a new lane Drop Bear Lane. The Australian Museum describes drop bears in this way: "T he Drop Bear, Thylarctos plummetus, is a large, arboreal, predatory marsupial related to the Koala."
It goes on:
Around the size of a leopard or very large dog with coarse orange fur with some darker mottled patterning (as seen in most Koalas). It is a heavily built animal with powerful forearms for climbing and holding on to prey. It lacks canines, using broad powerful premolars as biting tools instead.Clearly this is a dangerous beast. It reminds me of other dangerous creatures including the hoop snake. What advice would you provide tourists coming to Australia as to how they should manage all this wild life? We owe a duty of care and indeed need to ensure that our visitors provide informed consent.
There may be other dangerous creatures of which I am not aware. Please feel free to educate me. In this context, I came across an earlier story:
A $100,000 reward was offered 11 October by the board of directors of the Queanbeyan City Festival Ltd for the capture of the monster known as the Yowie. A Canberra radio station promptly matched the offer bringing the sum to a staggering $200,000.
The offer is serious and expeditions are now being mounted, with world wide interest in the outcome. The eight-foot high Biped has been sighted in the Monaro region. Festival president, Jim Belshaw, said many people had reported their sightings since photos of Yowie footprints were published in a Queanbeyan paper.Sadly, despite the many well-equipped exhibitions mounted to capture this creature, the reward was never claimed. But it does remain the most effective PR exercise ever mounted by the aforesaid Jim Belshaw.
So let your imagination run free. How do we assist visitors to Australia to identify and manage the many risks they face?